ASP Colloquia

ASP Colloquia

 Flooding - Photo by Manzoor Ahmad

2019 ASP Colloquium - Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in high-impact weather prediction


Every year, the Advanced Study Program hosts a summer colloquium designed for graduate students on subjects that represent new or rapidly developing areas of research for which good course material may not yet be available. The colloquium brings together lecturers and graduate students to NCAR and generally includes about 25 student participants, and several lecturers from NCAR and the community at large.


In 2019, the Advanced Study Program is hosting "Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in high-impact weather prediction."

NCAR organizers: Glen Romine, Rebecca Morss, Julie Demuth & Chris Snyder
University organizers: Lance Bosart (SUNY Albany) and Russ Schumacher (Colorado State University)

This colloquium will be held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO, USA. July 15-26 2019

Severe convective weather events produce life and property losses that could be mitigated by improved hazard predictions. Yet, forecasts are constrained by atmospheric predictability and our ability to accurately simulate the true atmosphere. Further, to fully utilize our current prediction capability we must address rapidly growing data volume issues and current deficiencies in our ability to effectively communicate threat information. Moreover, interdisciplinary approaches crossing atmospheric, data, and risk communication science are necessary to advance our high-impact hazard prediction capabilities. Toward this goal, this colloquium will assemble students into interdisciplinary teams to create comprehensive uncertainty assessments that evolve in space and time as an event horizon for high-impact weather events is approached. These assessments will examine atmospheric predictability leveraging state-of-the-art forecast tools and methods in combination with factors that influence risk assessment and decision-making across a spectrum of potentially impacted communities. Each team will be guided by experts in weather prediction, data science, and risk communication to develop their assessments, will present their results at the conclusion of the colloquium, and will aid the workshop organizers in defining a roadmap for the future scientific workforce needs to improve future hazard prediction.

Approximately 25 students will be selected to participate in the colloquium. Travel costs (air fare, lodging, ground transportation, etc.) will be covered for all selected participants. However, selected participants must pay a flat $100 fee to cover workshop refreshments.

How to apply:

Applicants need to provide some basic contact information and the following:

  • CV
  • unofficial transcripts
  • letter of support from an advisor or close mentor (this letter can be sent directly to
  • statement of interest (maximum of 2 pages) please address the following:
    • research you have done to date
    • research you aspire to do in the near future and how this colloquium could benefit your progress
    • why this inter-disciplinary colloquium is of particular interest
    • your experience with data analysis


Deadline for applications is April 1, 2019

Please note: There is a $100 registration fee to attend this colloquium. There is no fee to apply.

Link to apply for this colloquium,